Mufumbwe: voter ratio 3:1, i.e., UPND/PF: MMD. Milanzi 4:1, i.e., MMD to UPND/PF.
Analysis:
(a) Lower ratio win in either scenario denotes gains by opposing Party;
(b) Voting pattern more an ethnical factor in Milanzi; and,
(c) Mufumbwe UPND/PF candidate had stronger showing in last election. Muzungu is a chief's protégé, and evidence shows chief's do not influence voting.
Summation. Test of Opposition gains is in Milanzi.
On FB on April 10, 2010
Milanzi, Mufumbwe by-elections prediction based on an analysis of parliamentary election results from 1991 to 2006, shows that the MMD has the least chance of winning. The two scenerios are that single opposition parties have consistently won in these constituencies, and that the single instancies when the MMD has won,... the opposition as a sum total of their votes still mustered a slim majority.In addition, Mufumbwe shows a high probability of success by the Opposition coalition, not just numerically, but also that the MMD candidate's creditials are scarred by the miserable loss in 1991.
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