The Political Geography of Representation – Interrogating the 2026 Constituency Delimitation in Zambia

 

1.0 Introduction

The 2026 constituency delimitation in Zambia reflects a complex and evolving balancing act between three interrelated considerations. These are population equality, geographical space, and developmental equity. While democratic theory emphasizes that representation should be based primarily on population, ensuring that each citizen’s vote carries equal weight, the realities of governing a geographically diverse and unevenly developed country complicate this ideal. Zambia’s vast territorial expanse, coupled with stark rural–urban disparities, necessitates a broader approach to delimitation, one that incorporates both spatial and developmental concerns alongside population distribution.

This article examines the relationship between space, population, and representation, while also situating these findings within the country’s constitutional framework. 

2.0 Legal and Institutional Framework of Delimitation

Constituency delimitation in Zambia is not only a technical or political exercise but also a constitutionally guided process. The criteria governing delimitation are set out in the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2016, particularly under Article 59, which provides the principles that the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) must follow when drawing boundaries. In addition, the Electoral Process Act empowers the ECZ to operationalise delimitation through statutory instruments.

Article 59 outlines several key considerations. First, the ECZ is required to consider the history, diversity, and cohesiveness of a constituency or ward, recognising that representation is not purely numerical but also social and cultural. Second, the Commission must consider population density, trends, and projections, ensuring that demographic realities inform boundary design. Third, constituencies must have a reasonable number of inhabitants, considering geographical features and communication infrastructure, which is particularly relevant in a country characterised by vast rural areas and uneven development.

Further, the Constitution requires that constituencies and wards remain wholly within district boundaries, reinforcing administrative coherence.

Most importantly, Article 59 mandates the ECZ to seek approximate equality of population across constituencies, while explicitly allowing deviations where necessary to ensure adequate representation for urban and sparsely populated areas.

This constitutional framework is critical for interpreting the empirical patterns observed in the delimitation process. It establishes that representation is intended to balance not only population equality but also spatial realities and developmental considerations.

3.0 The Interrogation Approach

The provincial data presented in Table below provides a basis for examining how constituency delimitation relates to spatial and demographic factors.

Province	Area sq.km	Population per sq.km	No. of Constituencies
Central	94 394	24.0	23
Copperbelt	31 328	88.4	29
Eastern	51 476	47.8	29
Luapula	50 567	30.0	20
Lusaka	21 896	141.3	18
Muchinga	87 806	10.5	14
Northern	77 650	20.9	19
North-Western	125 826	10.2	19
Southern	85 283	28.0	29
Western	126 386	10.9	26
	752 612	26.2	226
Source of area and population data: 2022 Census of Population and Housing, p10

A descriptive statistical approach allows for a direct rationalisation of how constituencies are distributed across provinces, consistent with the constitutional requirement to balance population equality with geographical realities.

Two simple, but analytically meaningful indicators can be derived from this data.

These are population per constituency, calculated as follows:

And area per constituency, calculated as follows:

To illustrate how these indicators operate in practice, selected provincial computations are presented below.

Example 1. Lusaka Province (High Density, Small Area)

Interpretation
Lusaka exhibits a high population burden but a low geographical burden, reflecting dense settlement patterns.

Example 2. Western Province (Low Density, Large Area)

Interpretation
Western Province has a low population burden but a very high geographical burden, reflecting dispersed populations and large distances.

Example 3. North-Western Province (Very Low Density, Large Area)

Interpretation
This province shows one of the highest spatial burdens per constituency, reinforcing the need for territorial representation.

Example 4. Copperbelt Province (High Density, Moderate Area)

Interpretation
Copperbelt combines high population pressure with low spatial burden, typical of urban-industrial regions.

These computations make clear that provinces differ significantly in both population burden and geographical burden, and that constituency allocation adjusts across these dimensions. High-density provinces absorb population pressure, while large and sparsely populated provinces are allocated constituencies in a manner that compensates for distance and accessibility constraints.

A clear pattern emerges from the data. Provinces such as Western (126,386 sq.km; 10.9 density; 26 constituencies) and North-Western (125,826 sq.km; 10.2 density; 19 constituencies) are characterised by large territorial size and low population density. These provinces tend to have fewer people per constituency, but significantly larger areas per constituency, indicating that representation is structured to account for the challenges of distance, accessibility, and administrative reach.

In contrast, provinces such as Lusaka (21,896 sq.km; 141.3 density; 18 constituencies) and Copperbelt (31,328 sq.km; 88.4 density; 29 constituencies) exhibit high population densities and relatively small land areas. In these cases, constituencies are more compact geographically, reflecting a population burden of representation.

Provinces such as Central, Eastern, and Southern show a more balanced relationship between area, density, and number of constituencies. This suggests that both spatial and demographic considerations are jointly considered.

The figure below illustrates the inverse relationship between population burden and spatial burden of representation. Provinces with larger territorial constituencies tend to have lower population per constituency, while densely populated provinces exhibit the opposite pattern.

Figure 1.0 Population per Constituency versus Area per Constituency by Province (Zambia, 2026 Delimitation)

Taken together, these patterns indicate that the 2026 constituency delimitation is structured around measurable spatial and demographic realities. The variation in constituency numbers across provinces corresponds closely to differences in territorial size and population distribution, demonstrating a consistent effort to balance representational equality with practical governance considerations.

Importantly, the data shows that population equality is applied in an approximate rather than strict sense, with adjustments made to accommodate provinces that are geographically large and sparsely populated. This is consistent with the constitutional framework, which explicitly permits such deviations.

4.0 Why a Descriptive Statistical Approach

Given the nature of the data, a descriptive statistical approach is more appropriate than formal quantitative modelling.

First, the dataset consists of only ten observational units (provinces), which is insufficient for reliable inferential modelling. Quantitative techniques rely on large-sample properties to produce stable estimates and meaningful inference. In small samples, results are highly sensitive to minor variations, and model outputs may reflect noise rather than underlying relationships, leading to spurious precision.

Second, the objective is not to estimate causal relationships or generate predictions, but to rationalise the observed distribution of constituencies in relation to spatial and demographic characteristics. Descriptive analysis allows direct examination of how constituency delimitation corresponds to patterns in area and population density, without imposing restrictive assumptions.

Third, delimitation is governed by a multi-criteria constitutional framework that includes qualitative factors such as accessibility and cohesion. Modelling with limited variables would therefore be incomplete.

Fourth, descriptive measures, population per constituency and area per constituency, provide clear and interpretable indicators of representational balance without reliance on statistical assumptions.

Overall, the descriptive approach offers a transparent and reliable basis for demonstrating that the 2026 constituency delimitation reflects a structured pattern shaped by spatial and demographic factors.

5.0 Representational Bias and Spatial Inequality

As demonstrated in Section 3.0, the computed variations in population per constituency and area per constituency reveal systematic disparities in representational burden across provinces, providing evidence of the representational bias embedded within the delimitation framework.

While population considerations remain central, the observable relationship between area and number of constituencies demonstrates that representation is not allocated purely based on population. Instead, geographically large but sparsely populated provinces are assigned a number of constituencies that exceeds what would be expected under strict population proportionality.

This produces measurable disparities in representation per capita. Provinces with low population density tend to have fewer people per constituency, while densely populated provinces exhibit significantly higher population burdens per Member of Parliament. In practical terms, this means that the effective voting power of individuals varies across space, with voters in sparsely populated regions enjoying relatively greater representation than those in urban centres.

From a strict electoral standpoint, this constitutes a deviation from the principle of equal representation, often framed as “one person, one vote.” However, the descriptive indicators, particularly population per constituency and area per constituency, show that this deviation follows a consistent and structured pattern rather than arbitrary delimitation. The bias is therefore systematic, predictable, and grounded in measurable spatial characteristics.

Importantly, this pattern is fully consistent with the constitutional framework. Article 59 explicitly permits departures from population equality to ensure adequate representation for sparsely populated areas. The observed spatial inequality is thus not an anomaly, but an institutionally embedded feature of the delimitation process, reflecting a deliberate effort to balance numerical equality with geographical realities.

6.0 Delimitation and the Development Dimension

Beyond its implications for representation, the 2026 constituency delimitation demonstrates significant developmental dimensions. The descriptive analysis shows that provinces with large geographical areas tend to have higher area per constituency, reflecting the need to manage vast and often inaccessible territories. These same provinces are typically characterised by rurality, remoteness, and lower levels of socio-economic development.

In this context, the delimitation of constituencies can be understood as a mechanism of territorial equity. By increasing representation in geographically expansive regions, the delimitation process compensates for structural disadvantages associated with distance, weak infrastructure, and dispersed populations. Representation, therefore, becomes a tool not only for political inclusion but also for extending the reach of the State.

The link between representation and development is particularly evident through, among others, the role of Members of Parliament in facilitating access to public resources. Instruments such as the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) are channelled through constituencies, meaning that a higher number of constituencies can translate into greater access to development financing, more localised projects, and enhanced administrative presence. In underdeveloped regions, this can improve access to schools, health facilities, roads, and other essential services.

From this perspective, the spatial bias identified in the analysis serves a redistributive role. Rather than simply distorting representation, it reallocates political and developmental attention toward regions that would otherwise be disadvantaged under a purely population-based system. Delimitation thus operates as an implicit instrument of spatial development policy, aligning representation with broader goals of reducing regional inequality and promoting inclusive national development.

7.0 Trade-offs and Policy Implications

While this hybrid system promotes territorial equity, it also introduces important and unavoidable trade-offs. The descriptive indicators reveal that densely populated provinces, particularly urban and economically dynamic regions, tend to have higher population-to-representative ratios. This can place significant pressure on elected representatives, potentially reducing responsiveness and complicating service delivery in areas where demand for public goods is already high.

At the same time, rural and sparsely populated provinces benefit from lower population burdens per constituency, but continue to face challenges related to infrastructure, distance, and administrative capacity. This highlights a fundamental tension. Increasing representation in such areas improves political access but may not necessarily resolve underlying development constraints.

These dynamics raise broader policy questions about how to balance three competing objectives. These are equal representation, where each vote carries similar weight; effective governance, where constituencies are geographically manageable and accessible; and equitable development, where disadvantaged regions receive adequate support.

The 2026 constituency delimitation process reflects an attempt to reconcile these objectives through a structured but non-uniform delimitation of constituencies. However, the long-term effectiveness of this approach depends on whether increased representation in less developed regions translates into tangible improvements in welfare, infrastructure, and service delivery.

Ultimately, the challenge for policymakers is not whether to balance these objectives, but how to calibrate that balance over time as population patterns, urbanisation, and development conditions evolve.

8.0 Conclusion

The 2026 constituency delimitation is shaped by a structured interplay between space, population, and development. The analysis demonstrates that both area and population density significantly influence the delimitation of constituencies. However, the role of area introduces a clear representational bias in favour of larger, less densely populated provinces, indicating the spatial realities of governance.

This pattern is consistent with the constitutional framework set out in Article 59 of the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act No. 2 of 2016, which explicitly permits deviations from strict population equality to accommodate geographical realities and ensure adequate representation. When viewed through a developmental lens, this bias can be interpreted as a mechanism for promoting territorial equity and addressing regional disparities. It reflects a deliberate effort to extend political representation and State presence to geographically expansive and often underserved regions.

The findings reinforce the central argument of this article, that the 2026 constituency delimitation is grounded in measurable spatial and demographic factors. The systematic relationship between area, population density, and constituency delimitation demonstrates a coherent underlying logic that aligns with both constitutional principles and practical governance considerations.

Ultimately, the 2026 constituency delimitation process reflects a pragmatic compromise that seeks to balance the ideals of democratic equality with the practical demands of governance and the imperative of inclusive development. The influence of both population density and geographical area on constituency delimitation is therefore indicative of a deliberate, rule-guided system designed to balance electoral equality with spatial and developmental considerations.